In a press release and backgrounder sent out on February 5th, 2020, the MCC provided an estimate of total mortalities of endangered and threatened Fraser 42 and 52 Chinook in south coast recreational fisheries. This estimate was based on the recreational fishery in Areas 17, 18, 19, 20, 29 and 121 (roughly Juan de Fuca, Victoria through to the entrance of the Fraser River and south Strait of Georgia) and its potential impacts on Fraser 52 and 42 Chinook stocks of concern (early timed Chinook which spend several months in freshwater before migrating into the marine environment).
Since those preliminary estimates were released, the authors of the original discussion paper have invested considerable time refining input data (genetic stock ID information) in collaboration with DFO. We also incorporated additional information and perspectives to inform the model’s ‘risk factors’. During the review of the genetic stock ID data, it was decided to drop Fraser 42 Chinook from the new analysis as GSI estimates for 42 were highly uncertain. It is therefore difficult to directly compare the February 5th estimate to the current estimate.
The new estimate of total mortalities applies only to Fraser 52 Chinook. The elimination of 42 from the analysis, in addition to the refined model inputs, reduces the estimated number of total mortalities attributed to the south coast recreational fishery to between 1,000 and 2,000, from the February 5th estimate for both 42 and 52 Chinook of 3,500. Click below to read the full clarification.